IntroductionWhat are the characteristics and future of the CBD in Folkestone, Kent?
IntroductionFolkestone is a town in the Shepway district of Kent. Boat services connect the town to Boulogne in France and since 1994 the nearby Channel Tunnel has provided links to Continental Europe.
Folkestone was once a "limb" of the Cinque Port of Dover, until in 1629 the local inhabitants obtained a licence to build a port.
At the end of the 18th century the city became prosperous because of an increase in the fishing and shipping industries and in the middle of the 19th century. Folkestone was one of the chief resorts of southern England. It was seriously damaged by bombs in both World Wars.
Several visits to Folkestone were made to analyse the characteristics of its CBD. Since Folkestone's shopping areas are mainly confined to a few streets, it was decided to take a transect (shown below) through the town centre taking in its different areas. The aims of the project were to:
The main hypotheses tested were:
Folkestone Library provided much preliminary information, including general books about Folkestone. 'Goad plans' of the town centre detailed the name and size of each shop.
A suitable transect for the study was selected. The main shopping street in Folkestone is Sandgate Road, and this descends to the sea front via Guildhall Street, Rendezvous Street and the Old High Street. The transect includes a variety of shops and other land uses.
(Most of the maps in the report have the transect split in two halves at the red line below.)
The PLVI (peak land value intersection) was then found. The PLVI is the location that commands the highest land rents in the CBD. It is found where the ratio (annual locational rent)/(length of shop front) is the greatest.
A visit to Folkestone town hall yielded the rent records for the town centre. Since the number of shops on the transect was very large, every third entry was sampled. Details of the data collected are given in Appendix A. The Goad map was consulted to find the lengths of the frontages of the shops. One divided by the other provided the LRQ (locational rent quotient). This process was repeated for every shop in the area of highest rent, precisely locating the PLVI.
The transect was checked on foot. Some land uses had already changed since the map's publication. The premises were allocated into one of 12 land-use categories.
Environmental Survey Systematic sampling located 18 sampling points at 50m intervals along the transect which were labelled A-R. Systematic sampling ensured a reasonable number of points in each part of the transect. Then an 'environmental survey' was carried out at the sampling points, using a bipolar scale in ten categories. For example category 1 was litter and cleanliness:
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Very clean, no litter | Quite clean, a few cigarette butts | Average, some scraps of litter | Quite dirty, fast food packaging lying around | Very dirty, much discarded litter blowing about |
This score from 1-5 was added to that from the other nine categories to give an overall 'environmental quality' score out of 50.
The full details of the categories are given on the data collection sheet in Appendix B. Below and overleaf are two examples of how points were awarded.
A pedestrian flow survey was undertaken at the same sampling points.
This involved counting the number of pedestrians passing over an imaginary survey line in five minutes, in both directions. 'Pedestrians' included children being carried or in pushchairs or prams, people in wheelchairs etc., but not cyclists.
On the quieter sample points, it was possible for one person to do all the sampling, noting down people crossing the sample line for five minutes . On the busier sample points, it was easier to sample as a pair, one person counting people going one way and one those going the other way.
Folkestone Library provided a range of useful information. To find out how the transect has changed over the years old maps and pictures of the town were examined. Details of the books used are given in the bibliography.
Photographs were taken to:
This provided some interesting background information. Details of the most useful websites are given in the bibliography.
Full results of the locational rent results are given in Appendix A. The initial sampling covered the length of the transect, giving the following graph:
Obviously this suggested that rents increased in the centre of the transect, between 300m and 500m, with slowly decreasing rents either side. However only every third shop had been sampled so the PLVI could not be identified exactly. Repeating the calculations for all the shops in the centre led to the graph overleaf.
This identified Boots the chemists as the PLVI in Folkestone, at a distance of 440m from A (the start of the transect). Distances from the PLVI for all shops were computed from (440m - distance from A).
Using the criteria given in Appendix B the survey was completed.
The greatest environmental quality is at point L, near Debenhams, and close to the PLVI, which is near J. The lowest environmental quality is at C, in the Old High Street. Pedestrian flow
Full details of the pedestrian flow survey data are given in Appendix C. The pictogram below (1 set of footsteps = 25 people) shows the data at a glance.
The highest pedestrian flow was in the centre of the transect (J, K and L), with average flow rates of over 75 pedestrians per minute. The lowest flows were at A, B and D with under 10 pedestrians per minute.
To test what patterns are identifiable in the land uses of Folkestone's CBD, each of the shops on the transect was placed into one of twelve categories. These were:
These were plotted on a map (overleaf) to spot patterns in distribution.
By plotting distance from the PLVI against the rate indices it was possible to analyse the overall distribution.
The graph strongly indicates that there may be a negative correlation between locational rent and distance from the PLVI, as might be expected. To quantify this relationship Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient can be calculated. This was chosen because the number of data items was large so ranking the items allowed simplification of calculations.
In this case SRCC= -0.778
This indicates a strong negative correlation between the variables. The significance of the result was verified using the test statistic (t): Statistical tables show the result is significant at the 99.9% level, i.e. there is significant evidence that land values vary inversely with distance from the PLVI.
Generally the environmental quality seems to decrease away from the centre, especially towards the A-direction (the Old High Street), although A itself has a relatively high EQ, having been partially renovated and regenerated.
Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient was most suitable since the EQ scores were subjective not absolute.
A reasonably strong correlation, negative as expected. True mathematical inverse proportion is unlikely since the EQ marks are subjective assessments rather than measurements. The conclusion is that environmental quality decreases as distance from the PLVI increases. Statistical tables show the critical value at the 99% significant level is -0.58 for 17 degrees of freedom, so the result is 99% significant.
The chart strongly suggests an inverse relationship between distance from the PLVI and the pedestrian flow rate. This can be tested by calculating the Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (PMCC), which is suitable because the number of data pairs is sufficiently small to make the calculations simple.
The PMCC is defined as
where r is, in a similar way to Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient, a measure of correlation between the data sets. "The measure tells us at a glance whether two things covary perfectly, or near perfectly, and whether positively or negatively. If the coefficient is, say, 0.8 or 0.9, we know that the variables closely vary together in the same direction; if -0.8 or -0.9, they vary together in opposite directions."1
PMCC=-0.8142
This is indicative of a strong negative correlation. Checking statistical tables shows the 99% critical value for 17 degrees of freedom is -0.575 i.e. there is significant evidence at the 1% level of an inversely proportional relationship between distance from the PLVI and pedestrian flow.
The survey indicated clear patterns in land uses (shown overleaf)
Department/Variety: Very low occurrence (only two), close to PLVI CBD can only support one or two large department stores due to their high threshold. They can command the best sites close to the PLVI.
Clothing and shoes: Mainly clustered close to the PLVI, a few more specialist retailers (e.g. men's suits) further out. Clothes and shoes are comparison goods - people tend to move from one shop to another comparing the goods on offer. It is therefore in shops' interests to locate near other similar shops.
Eating, drinking and entertainment: Scattered throughout the transect, perhaps showing regularity (see NNA, below) Spatial competition causes the cafes, restaurants and pubs to spread out. Food and drink are more impulse purchases and people are likely to eat at the nearest suitable outlet rather than do a comparison of all the options.
Banking and insurance: Four of the main banks are very central, the rest are strung along the west end of the transect. It is important for a bank to be accessible, hence the often central location. However, banks are not comparison services - most people already have a bank so a slightly more peripheral location is not that harmful. Several central banks, e.g. TSB, have been closed due to recent mergers.
Personal services: Quite spread out, big chains close to the PLVI Only big chain stores like Superdrug have the buying power to locate close to the PLVI. The least popular shops (e.g. the Tattoo shop) are furthest from the centre.
Specialist goods: Mainly peripheral Cannot usually afford the rents of the centre. Higher value goods (mobile phones, china) tend to be closer to the PLVI that lower value ones (car spares, models).
Food and drink retail: Peripheral, several near the ends of the transect May be used by local residents who walk there, hence reach the peripheral shops first. For example Alldays is convenient for residents who live in housing on the west of the town.
Books, stationery, music and video, gifts: Some central, many peripheral Large books and music 'superstores ' e.g. Waterstones and Our Price can afford high rents of centre. Second hand bookshops and gift shops etc, tend to be on the edge of town. There are several souvenir shops on the Old High Street, since this is most easily reached from the tourist area at the foot of the town.
Estate agencies: West end of town These are clustered on the west side of town, along with other 'quaternary industries'. These could be considered comparison goods (when house hunting).
Charity shops: Peripheral Charities cannot afford very central locations
Home furnishings: Peripheral Insufficient data to find trends, but generally not profitable enough for centre.
Vacant: Large concentration in Old High Street Poorest part of town, low environmental quality, too peripheral, lack of investment, narrow and dark, low rents attract low-quality shops e.g. tattooist, security services, short-lived 'Eel Pie and Mash shop'.
Nearest neighbour analysis provides a method to quantify the patterns discussed above. Standard NNA is based on area sampling, however a transect requires modified linear NNA:
Modified linear NNA can be calculated as
where: LRn is the nearest neighbour analysis statistic, d is the average distance between one point and its nearest neighbour, n is the number of sample points, l is the length of the transect
Eating, drinking and entertainment Full details of the analysis are given in Appendix D. The NNA statistic was 1.04. This suggested a random distribution, rather than a regular one. It also indicated the dangers of trying to make a judgement about the distribution of data using qualitative rather than quantitative means.
Vacant premises Full details of the analysis are given in Appendix D. The NNA statistic was 0.37. Consulting the diagram overleaf (after Waugh2, p371) shows this indicates a strong degree of clustering. The Rn value is also significant (it is unlikely to have occurred by chance).
The map overleaf indicates those shops that are parts of national chains in yellow.
The map suggests that chain stores are located mainly in the centre of town, but this could be due to chance. Carrying out a chi-squared test allows quantification of how much the observed pattern differs from what would be expected with a random distribution.
Full details of the Chi-Squared test are given in Appendix E.
H0: chain stores are randomly located along the transect H1: there is significant evidence of non-random location
The chi-squared value was 84.12 The test had 5 degrees of freedom: ?=(rows-1)*(cols-1) =5*1 =5 Consulting statistical tables3 I found that at a value of 84.12, the result proves significant at the .999 level. There is 99.9% certainty that the observed pattern did not occur by chance i.e. chain stores are segregated from non-chain stores
The primary data indicated the following patterns:
What factors create this obvious dichotomy between the rich centre and poor periphery in Folkestone?
Old views of Folkestone viewed side by side with the writer's photographs provide an insight into the changes that have occurred in Folkestone over the years.
|
Sandgate Road, the main
shopping street in Folkestone has been largely immune to
the decline around it, especially in the centre. The
major shops like Debenhams, Marks and Spencer and
Woolworth have remained reasonably static over the past
20 years. The picture taken in 1905 shows that Sandgate Road has been the hub of Folkestone for some time. The building at the back was then the Town Hall. Now Shepway District Council occupies more modern premises in the west of town, with Waterstones taking over the original building. Another interesting point of note is the building to the right of shot. In the early photo this is the London City and Midland Bank Limited. Encyclopaedia Britannica7 indicated that this was a forerunner of HSBC, showing that the same bank has occupied the site throughout the century. |
 1910s
1980
|
These pictures clearly show
the transformations in the Old High Street. In the late nineteenth and early twentieth century Folkestone was a popular place for holidaying and service industries sprang up to accommodate them like the restaurant shown. By the late 20th century the resort had declined and gone downmarket. The shops are now snack bars and amusement arcades. By 2000 further decline has occurred and the left hand side stands empty. However, there are signs of regeneration; new paving is being laid to the left and the amusement arcade has been recently bought up and given a facelift. |
 Early 1990s
2000 |
This is a view from the top
of the Old High Street taken in the early 1990s and today.
The most visible change is the closure of Milletts, which took place about four years ago. Milletts was the only chain store this far down the transect and its closure was another nail in the coffin of the Old High Street. While the central shops have prospered relatively, the periphery of the town has continued to decline. Other notable points include the closure of the Earl Grey pub. This was one of the few places that could attract people outside shopping hours and its closure will have had a negative effect on the nightlife of the area. Street furniture has not changed at all. There are no benches so people are unlikely to stop as they walk up or down the street. |
Main findings
The problems facing Folkestone today
Regeneration of the Old High Street would make Folkestone a more attractive destination. It seems unlikely that major shops will want to locate there, as the example of Milletts shows. Here are three possible scenarios:
Scenario A - Quaint
Folkestone Draw on the area's history, for example Charles
Dickens used to visit the area. Encourage antique shops, craft
shops, book shops and cafes. This has been done successfully in
Rochester, where the main High Street contains very few 'chain
stores' but there are many successful small shops.
The narrow streets of the Old Town have a certain higgledy-piggledy appeal, and it is possible that with time and money this could be achieved.
Scenario B - Hip Folkestone Try to make Folkestone into a hip urban location (perhaps like the regenerated Brick Lane in London). The one precedent for this is the modern art gallery, which has been established in the past year (see right). Encourage trendy wine bars and cafes, art studios, designer clothes shops and quality entertainment.
The nightlife in Folkestone is very limited and there are few places for young people to go: "Everyone hangs outside McDonalds thinking they are hard whistling at all the boy racers and talking to the security guard. Also everyone hangs around the amusements causing trouble and kicking the machines trying to get money out of them"9
Scenario C - Spend money elsewhere Being brutally honest this is the most likely scenario. Shepway District Council doesn't have the money to pursue expensive regeneration projects. Some would argue it should spend its money on social projects helping residents, not on upgrading down-market shopping areas. The 'Believing in Folkestone' campaign recently launched by the council may work towards policies of social inclusion.
To regenerate Folkestone desperately needs money, yet it raises little money from council tax and has to pay out large amounts in social benefits. The fact that it is in the South East of England, not considered a poor area, means that persuading the government or the EU to give it more money could be difficult. That said, direct governmental or European funding would seem to be the best way of generating extra revenue for regeneration. Its proximity to the Continent could work to its advantage in attaining EU grants.
Folkestone desperately needs to find its 'niche'. Is it to be a holiday resort like Blackpool, a historic town like Rochester or Arundel, a port like Dover, a 'young, trendy' town like Brighton or a retirement town like Eastbourne? Only by choosing its real identity can progress by made.
The project proved generally successful though a number of issues seemed worthy of expansion:
The environmental survey used ten criteria. The data collection form is shown overleaf.
The light level was measured with a light-meter calibrated in lux. Measurements were taken in the middle of the street when the light level had stabilised. The light level readings were taken separately from the other readings so that they could be taken over a shorter period (about 10 minutes in all). This meant that the general ambient light levels did not change much over the course of the measurements.
General reading and research
